Mar-a-Lago affidavit: Russiagate rides again

The affidavit behind the warrant for the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago is out, sort of, and it appears to fulfill expectations.  The statute citations are absurd, the prior cooperation of former President Trump with federal agencies is clear, a huge question remains unanswered, and the issue of declassification is dealt with in a series of rimshots that never land in a pocket (which alone should have been a red flag to magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart).

And that’s just the part we can see.  The real question – not really a question, I think – is what’s invisible behind the massive redactions.

I say it’s not really a question, because one thing it has to be is excuses for the statute citations, which include language implying Trump is suspected of conspiring to hand sensitive national defense material to unauthorized persons, and has unknown confederates in such an enterprise.

TOC Ready Room 24 August 2022: Notes on the Boxes of Mar-a-Lago; the end of an old order continues

The big news from the last 48 hours is that the Biden White House actually did know in advance of the Mar-a-Lago raid, and in fact had been involved in the issue of the documents held at Mar-a-Lago since at least April of 2022 (and probably earlier).  So the original claim that the Biden White House didn’t know about it was false.

That point has been gone over vigorously since it came out Monday night.  But the latest information on the Mar-a-Lago/classified information dust-up also confirms my previous discussion of the classification issue (and here).

In addition to that discussion, I offer as preparation an excellent 7-odd minutes with Megyn Kelly and former CIA officer Bryan Dean Wright, which packages a pretty comprehensive overview of the things that matter.

Pinglet on new theme that Trump was “hoarding documents” about Russiagate

It’s not that we didn’t already know that this, in essence, is what the raid on Mar-a-Lago was about.  It was virtually certain from the beginning that the Justice Department’s purpose has been to verify what Trump is holding that could expose more about the Obama administration’s conduct as part of Russiagate and Spygate.  (For earlier posts on this topic, see here, here, here, and here.  Most recent post first.)

So Newsweek might be said to be catching the mainstream media up to reality.

But Newsweek’s exclusive new report on the matter, attributed to “sources,” spins harder than a washing machine at the end of its cycle.  It describes former President Trump, for example, as “hoarding” materials “for years,” where it could have said something with more journalistic integrity like “saved materials during his term in office.”  The latter sounds normal – which it is;

Here’s motive on the Mar-a-Lago raid; or, Dog-paddling outside the OODA loop

Divining the principal purpose of the DOJ/FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago on 8 August 2022 hasn’t really been that hard.  The timing and its juxtaposition with the Justice Department’s motion to substitute itself for FBI employees, as defendant in Trump’s RICO lawsuit over Russiagate, have produced a “speaking timeline.”

But it’s good to know that one of the two most important events in that timeline yields a treasure trove of motive for DOJ to seize materials from Mar-a-Lago.  That event is former president Trump’s filing of an amended complaint in the RICO lawsuit, which he did on 21 June 2022.

I’ve been threatening to inspect the amendments to the lawsuit, and have now completed that extensive task (So You Don’t Have To).  The short version up front:  the amendments include a raft of details that weren’t in the original complaint, although many of them have been known for years (having come from sources like the DOJ IG report on the FISA process, and summaries of findings about Russiagate/Spygate from Senate and House committees).

Three more pings on Mar-a-Lago raid: A situational awareness adjustment

This thought-treatment I really do hope to keep tight.  Nothing has changed substantially in terms of common facts since the last article, and my hope is to help focus the speculation on the situation, which right now is all over the place.

The pings have to do with (1) what the DOJ/FBI could have been and/or probably were looking for in the 8 August 2022 raid at Mar-a-Lago; (2) what the purpose(s) of the raid may have been; and (3) what DOJ and FBI already know about Trump knows, what he’s been doing at any relevant time in the past, and what his intentions are.

Regarding (2), I suspect there was more than one purpose.