The game of international power dynamics has just shifted in a major way. It will take a little time for the consequences to be visible to the public eye. But I don’t think it will take that much time. We’re talking months, at most, if not weeks. Iran is getting no pushback from the “international community,” and is moving quickly now.
Two points to take this forward on. First, the Maersk Tigris, the Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship detained by Iran on Tuesday, is still being held by Iran. The situation remains unresolved.
Second, the U.S. Navy will begin accompanying U.S.-flagged commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH). This is not the robust use of force it may seem to be, nor is it a repeat of the tanker-escort operation (Earnest Will)* in 1987-88, during the Iran-Iraq war. It’s a tacit surrender, in fact. Continue reading “The Maersk Tigris game change: Iran’s big little maneuver in the Strait of Hormuz”