Ukraine update: Russia prepares the battle space

Things are proceeding about as I expected in Ukraine, and in terms of Putin’s posture.

Readers will have heard about the Russian military exercise launched in the Western Military District involving “150,000 troops.”  That’s a lot of troops, but I very much doubt they are all headed for Russia’s border with Ukraine.  I do expect a build-up on that border, but something on the order of 20,000-30,000 is more like it, and it may not be that many.  The 150,000 troops are, in any case, mostly stationed in western Russia to begin with.  Some, especially elements like special forces, aviation, and missile units, will probably deploy from elsewhere to augment the Western Military District’s permanently stationed units.

Russia establishes a beachhead

USS Mount Whitney, USS Taylor both in Black Sea ports

USS Taylor in Samsun, Turkey. (Image credit: 6n1k.com.tr via Bosphorus Naval News; links in text.)

The U.S. warships in the Black Sea continue to be nowhere near Ukraine, except in the sense of being closer to Ukraine than they would be if they were in port in Spain.

USS Taylor (FFG-50), the frigate, which was last heard of running her propeller aground