Bibi, Iran’s nukes, and military force in a changed Middle East

Game change.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the march. (Image: AFP via Der Spiegel)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the march. (Image: AFP via Der Spiegel)

New post up at Liberty Unyielding.  Enjoy!

Interdicting arms to Hezbollah? New report of Israeli air strikes in Syria

Strange disclosure about a predictable event.

The latest report that the Israeli Air Force has conducted an attack in Syria comes not from the Syrian rebels but from U.S. officials.  Why our officials might be talking to the media about this is a separate topic.  More on it in a moment.

The attack

The information disclosed to the media is sketchy; it’s not even clear that the target was actually in Syria, as opposed to Lebanon.  I heard on Fox earlier this evening that people in Lebanon had reported seeing IAF aircraft overhead during the period in question (some time Thursday or Friday).  The statement(s) of U.S. officials indicate that we don’t think the IAF aircraft entered Syrian air space to conduct the attack.

The overall description of the Israeli strike package – Continue reading “Interdicting arms to Hezbollah? New report of Israeli air strikes in Syria”

The art of “gray-hull diplomacy”

Rules of force.

I received a question last week from a correspondent:

I was wondering if you could suggest some manners in which the US could make the military option more credible against Iran.

To my request for clarification, the correspondent replied that this question was more about how to credibly intimidate Iran than about how to effectively interdict Iran’s nuclear program with military force.

It’s a very good question.  How should an American president use the military in an intimidating, persuasive manner, to induce Iran to give up her nuclear-weapons purpose?  Very little has been discussed on this topic in the forums of punditry; virtually all treatments focus on the feasibility or proper method of a military attack campaign.  Is there an “intimidation option,” Continue reading “The art of “gray-hull diplomacy””