Bear bombers and the general collapse of the status quo

Peace in our time.

An F-22 from the 302d Fighter Squadron at Elmendorf AFB, AK intercepts a Russian Tu-95MS Bear H. (USAF image)
An F-22 from the 302d Fighter Squadron at Elmendorf AFB, AK intercepts a Russian Tu-95MS Bear H. (USAF image)

New post up at Liberty Unyielding.  Enjoy!

Peace in our time: Belarus, missiles, and the revenge of the “Reset”

When there is no peace.

For whatever reason, peace is not busting out at all over.  After months of coyness and denials from Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, Russia has deployed the first of what will reportedly be a full squadron of fighter jets to a base in Belarus, where they will remain deployed for defensive alerts against – well, NATO.  Hard as that is for members of NATO to believe, given the parlous state of our unity, purpose, and military readiness.

The former Soviet Union used bases in what was then a “federated socialist republic” in Belarus during the Cold War.  But the Russians will be using a different base this time.  Their Su-27 Flanker jets will operate out of Baranovichi, where the Belarusian Air Force has had its main base for the last two decades. Continue reading “Peace in our time: Belarus, missiles, and the revenge of the “Reset””

Missile defense mash-up: Reagan’s vision derailed

Missile defense for them but not for us.

If you went strictly by the MSM reporting on the Defense Department’s recent announcement about missile defense, the thought in your head would be “we’re deploying more interceptor missiles because of North Korea.”

The “North Korea” deployment

What’s probably not in your head is the auxiliary details.  DOD has requested that funding for the additional deployments start in fiscal year 2014.  The deployments won’t start until after that.  Assuming DOD gets the funding, it will take until 2017 for the interceptors to be in place.  And the deployment, if it happens, will do no more than provide the ground-based interceptor baseline that was originally planned by the Bush II administration (44 interceptors), a baseline the Obama administration cut back to its current level (30 interceptors) in April 2009.

To put the last point another way: Continue reading “Missile defense mash-up: Reagan’s vision derailed”

Rewarding Iran’s bad behavior

Manufacturing superpowers.

A crisis hotline with Iran?  Are mutual assured destruction and arms-control negotiation next?

An essential point of understanding is this: the problem with MAD in the Cold War was that it didn’t work on the Russians nearly as well as it worked on us.  The Soviet Russians never wanted to shoot nuclear missiles at us.  They just wanted to be able to hold us at risk so that our behavior would be constrained, and theirs could proceed on schedule.  Most of the time, they achieved that goal (rare exceptions would include Nixon’s deterrence of Soviet intervention in the 1973 war).

The MAD regime inhibited the US, but did not inhibit the Soviets when it came to the things they really wanted to do: Continue reading “Rewarding Iran’s bad behavior”

Good news: Iran now offers a missile umbrella to fellow Muslim nations; UPDATE

Deterrence.

Of course this was going to happen (h/t: “Reza Khalili”).  The whole point of having theater missiles, for Iran, is being able to engage in deterrence.  What Iran will protect under the missile umbrella is not peace, harmony, and light, but the nation-torturing activities of the paramilitary Qods Force and Iranian-backed terrorists like Hezbollah and Hamas.

This move puts Iran in the aspiring-nuclear-power category of the former USSR and China – not that of Britain, France, India, Pakistan, or North Korea.  Iran is still in the “aspiring” stage, but has already revealed the scope of her ambitions for deterrence. Continue reading “Good news: Iran now offers a missile umbrella to fellow Muslim nations; UPDATE”