For Russia and NATO, the year of maneuvering dangerously continues

Peace in our time.

Tu-22M3 Backfire, on the loose again. (Image: Alex Beltyukov via the Aviationist)
Tu-22M3 Backfire, on the loose again. (Image: Alex Beltyukov via the Aviationist)

New post up at Liberty Unyielding.  Enjoy!

Next Candidate for the April Glaspie Award

Video of Prof. Mark Katz explaining the US won’t support Georgia, plus pithy comments from TOC.

Remember her?  The US ambassador to Iraq who in the summer of 1990 left Saddam with the impression America wouldn’t much care if he invaded Kuwait?

Candidates will have to go a long way to outdo this feat of diplomacy, and it’s a handicap to not actually be a diplomat.  The speaker in this video clip is a professor at George Mason U., so he starts from behind and will have to play some catch-up.  See if you think he is working hard enough:

There you have it, readers.  Now, granted, RussiaToday is utterly and absolutely in the tank for Putin, Continue reading “Next Candidate for the April Glaspie Award”

Let’s Go Back, Jack, Do It Again…

US has Senate testimony and celebrates progress and phased approaches while Russia prepares to attack Georgia. Again.

Perhaps, if history repeats itself once as tragedy and then as farce, the next few weeks or months for the Caucasian nation of Georgia will have some light moments.

As I outlined in another post today, there has been an ominous succession of events this week involving Russia and Georgia.  Now, I must point out up front that I do not think Russia regards the anniversary of last year’s invasion as a deadline to be met in invading Georgia again.  Neither nations nor terrorists really have a habit of commemorating anniversaries in that way; the weird series of events on 19 April in the US is an anomaly rather than part of a broader pattern.  I certainly do not think Georgia has any intention of provoking a conflict on this anniversary.

Russia, however, is selling – hard – a media theme that that’s exactly what Georgia wants to do. Continue reading “Let’s Go Back, Jack, Do It Again…”

Turkey for Dinner

After Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, Turkey made a point of acting independently of NATO Europe, and is now deepening her relations with Russia. Russia, establishing military bases in both of Georgia’s breakaway provinces, is positioning herself to exert control of all the natural gas pathways into Europe, and enlarge her power over her southwestern flank.

I remember an entertaining phenomenon from last August, when Russia invaded Georgia over South Ossetia.  Many blog commentators predicted that Russia would keep troops in South Ossetia on a national (not OSCE) mission, and in Georgia’s other “breakaway province,” Abkhazia, after the invasion retreat.  We predicted this as early as the first week after the 7 August invasion, but this prediction was vigorously disputed by others, most of whom were certain that (a)  Georgia was the aggressor, (b)  Russia had no designs on the territory of South Ossetia or Abkhazia, and (c)  the whole thing was a retaliation for “Kosovo” anyway (and besides that, the US was going to put missile defense sites in Eastern Europe, so what did we expect?). Continue reading “Turkey for Dinner”