Peace in our time: ‘Game of carriers’ in Eastern Med

Vladimir Putin’s Russia has moved to clamp down on Ukraine in advance of the laughably rigged “referendum” scheduled for 16 March, when Crimeans will vote on which way to secede from Ukraine: either as an “independent” state or through annexation by Russia.  Crimeans who want to remain part of Ukraine are out of luck.

The battle for Crimea may be preordained; the battle for Ukraine underway.  There are also indications of a larger battle shaping up in the region, as the aircraft carriers of Russia and the United States perform an elaborate minuet in the Eastern Mediterranean.  If you weren’t convinced that the Russian move on Ukraine would rapidly destabilize the region, consider what has been going on in the last week west of Cyprus.

Great news: Russia, China to hold joint naval exercise in the Med

Russia Today reports that China and Russia agreed this past weekend to hold a joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea.

Since they’re both there and all.  It will be interesting to see where they hold the exercise.  Presumably they will steer clear of any area in which they would excite the territorial-claims concern of Greece and Turkey.  That may or may not eliminate the waters between Cyprus and Syria.  I suspect the Russians would avoid that area; it would be an “in your face!” gesture at Turkey to have the exercise there: the use of a card Russia doesn’t need to play just yet.

Are Russia and China ready to play a new Great Game?

In all the discussion of the sanctions on Iran and what effect they’re having, analysts have forgotten a major factor.  The US, Iran, and Europe aren’t the only geopolitical actors in the world.  We don’t operate in a sealed vacuum in which the interests and intentions of others have no meaning.  And from the perspective of these others – especially Russia, China, and India – what the US is doing with sanctions could well be the beginning of an attempt to destabilize Iran on their doorstep.

The strategic drivers

Once Iran is destabilized, the picture gets murkier from the standpoint of a great Asian power.

So, why DID we have to hear about a no-fly zone over Syria from Rick Perry?

The weird thing about Governor Perry’s “Syrian no-fly-zone” moment was not that he talked about a no-fly zone (NFZ) with the Fox news pundits, and then reiterated his comments in the GOP foreign policy debate on Tuesday.

The weird thing is that there seems, in fact, to be a proposal for a Syrian NFZ – one in which the US would reportedly provide logistic support – and it took a GOP candidate to tell us about it.

Perry took a lot of heat for “bringing up” the idea of an NFZ for Syria.  But foreign news agencies have been furiously reporting for nearly a week that negotiations are underway for such a measure.  The plan, as sketched out to date, would involve Arab and Turkish air forces enforcing the NFZ, with the US providing logistic support.

Calm down,