Posted by: theoptimisticconservative | September 30, 2015

Game change: Russia can now warn Israel against IAF operations over Syria

The game-changers. Russian air defense soldiers man their weapon system, the S-300, in a recent drill. (Image via defencerussia.wordpress.com)

The game-changers. Russian air defense soldiers man their weapon system, the S-300, in a recent drill. (Image via defencerussia.wordpress.com)

A recent report in Arabic media suggests that Israel has agreed to coordinate the IAF’s operations over Syria with Russia, and claims that Russia has warned Israel against conducting strikes in Syria in which Russian soldiers may be killed.  Israel Matzav has the story here.

The reflexive inclination is to focus on whether this particular report is accurate, and what the narrow, immediate implications are.  The big-picture implications, however, are actually much more important.

Short-term/tactical

But let’s quickly address the first questions.  The tone of the Arabic reporting, even in pidgin translations, is triumphalist against Israel, and we should exercise due skepticism of any particulars.

That said, the concerns reportedly raised by Russia are valid and reasonable, if Russia is going to be operating in Syria.  The Arabic report is by no means unrealistic.

Russia probably did warn Israel of the grave concern it would be to Russia if an Israeli strike killed a Russian.

And the Russians could very well suggest, as a practical matter, that Israel not conduct uncoordinated air strikes in Syria from now on.  Such a “suggestion” could be seen by interested partisans as a warning or an imposition on Israel, even if it was couched by Russia in the terms of a negotiating position.  It wouldn’t be an open threat – but it would inherently be a veiled one.

Israel may be able to make some accommodations, even if they aren’t everything Russia suggests.  If the IAF is blasting weapons convoys headed for Hezbollah in Lebanon, there might be room for avoiding Syrian territory, for the most part.

If any anti-Israel force – whether Hezbollah or another entity – is setting up firing positions north of the Golan, I don’t see Israel agreeing to ask permission from Russia to deal with that problem.  Israel’s response, I have no doubt, would be: “Keep your men out of that zone, because we’re going to defend ourselves.”

That won’t be satisfactory forever, but I have no doubt the IDF and the Netanyahu government will sprint to get ahead of this problem.  Fighting to defend Israel will become difficult unless the Israelis can enforce some amount of latitude in their arrangements with Russia.

Long-term/strategic

That said, the long-term implications of this new condition – Russia in combat in Syria, and requiring fires coordination with other parties (the military term for deconflicting what non-enemies are shooting at) – are the real issue.

Continue reading →


Responses

  1. You are right, but with all due respect, how Russia’s deployment to Syria affects Israel’s options vis a vis an Iran strike, or a Hizbollah supply route, is not near the top of the priority list.

    We are now one step (intentional or not) from some real trouble. It doesn’t seem as if the ‘Christian’ West is willing to align itself with Russia, Iran, and China, against the loony-Sunni.– and may well overtly back the reactionary Sunni powers against Russia in Syria. The Russians don’t seem like they are in any mood to cave, or compromise for that matter. That’s a recipe for world war I’m afraid. And a surefire way to toast the planet.

    Let the Russians do some of the heavy lifting in the Middle East for a change. To hell with the Saudis and their animal proxies. And if need be, the Israelis should sit in the corner and hush up. In any case, something tells me they are communicating just fine with Vova and the Russians (on all levels), regardless of the perceived public image.

  2. The following pro-Russian view of the situation is worth a read. I agree with the author that the Iranians/Persians and Hizbullah will take up the slack on the ground, Kurds as well, probably..

    http://thesaker.is/finally-some-clarity-about-the-russian-plans-about-syria/

    Pity my browser security setting won’t allow me to partake in the LU comments section. One particular ‘Salty’ comment there is borderline lunacy.

    some other negative observations follow.

    We’ve been ‘Kosovoed’ (again), in Syria. That’s three in a row now for Vova, Abkhazia/Ossetia, Crimea/Donbas, Latakia. Must make you wonder if it was worth saving the butts of those Muslim organized criminal gangs posing as ‘freedom fighters’ in the first place..

    So much for ‘Assad must go’ and ‘Free Ukraine’ btw….won’t be hearing much about that anymore.

    Some folks in and around the Beltway must be ‘Mighty’ unhappy.

    What goes around, comes around. C’est la vie mes amis.

    Look on the bright side. Maybe the powers that be will contain the carnage in Syria, and someone will finally utter the unspeakable phrase….’The House of Saud must go!”


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: