If you get your news from the mainstream media, you probably think that China – in spite of repeatedly opposing the Western sanctions on Iran – has effectively joined the sanctions effort by cutting oil orders with the Iranians.

In the context of Beijing’s deep involvement in the Iranian oil and gas industry, however, this media narrative is not just invalid, it’s wildly, grotesquely invalid.  China is investing heavily not just in oil and gas, but in other industries in Iran, including arms manufacturing and railway development.  The investment in the oil and gas industry is robust by itself, however.  It is also geographically interesting, and financially interesting.

There are several explanations we’re likely to hear about the outcome in South Carolina on Saturday.  Most of them will involve the voters being silly and not knowing what’s good for them.  (I especially like the variant that says South Carolina voters went for Newt Gingrich – Newt Gingrich! – because they’re right next to Georgia.  Yeah, right.  Gingrich is Mr. New American South.)

If the voters weren’t silly, they would understand that it has to be Mitt Romney, because, well, primary voters were silly

Oddly enough, football and politics keep shooting out parallels.  Go figure.  In a Denver Broncos move, Rick “I want to be Tim Tebow” Perry bowed out of the GOP race this week.  (This wasn’t a given, as Perry doppelganger Nick Saban won the BCS championship.)

I’m going to miss Perry.  Can’t get interested in anyone else.  The California primary is smartly scheduled to be meaningless this year, since it doesn’t occur until 5 June.  South Carolina and Florida will give us a good indication of whether the candidate, presumably Romney, will be selected by then.

Miscellaneous notes on primaries/caucuses:

The problem with nominating Mitt Romney is and has always been that it’s choosing to play on defense.

Romney is not a small-government, limited-government conservative.  He will not go on offense against the dangerous principles on which government is being conducted today in the United States.  This is thought by many to be behind his “electability,” but it makes him the most defensive of potential Republican candidates.

RomneyCare is only one example of Romney’s comfort with big government, but it’s an important one.  Romney has continued to defend

Is the Obama administration building up for a major war against Iran?  No.

The administration appears to be doing what it thinks will avert one.  Military force is playing a quiet and relatively minor role.  There has been more “messaging” about force in the last few weeks than actual force activity.  The administration is also trying to discourage Israel from mounting an independent strike on Iran, by frequently advertising US concerns about that possibility.  Presumably the White House knows that this particular messaging campaign serves to keep Iran alerted.  Ultimately, there is more talk than anything else.  Military preparations, such as they are, are defensive in nature.  That includes the acceleration of missile-defense sales to the Persian Gulf nations.

Consider last week’s disclosures

It’s not NCAA FBS football, but it’ll have to do.  The Saints kick off at San Francisco here in about 10 minutes, and of course the TEBOW Broncos will be at New England for the night game.

Sunday sees a game it’s really hard to get excited about between Houston and Baltimore.  Apologies to those who care,

What does it mean that almost everyone in the GOP race looks kind of icky in this Sudden Bain Eruption?  Gingrich, Perry, and Huntsman have all piled on with demagoguery about Romney and Bain, depicting Bain Capital as a soulless corporate predator, like the fictional company whose owner Richard Gere portrayed in Pretty Woman.  In one scene from that movie, Julia Roberts’ character, Vivian, asks Gere’s (Edward Lewis) about his business:

Treasured readers know that I think Nick Saban looks like Rick Perry.  Or vice versa.  (Tim Tebow doesn’t look like Rick Perry, just to clear that up.)

In all the discussion of the sanctions on Iran and what effect they’re having, analysts have forgotten a major factor.  The US, Iran, and Europe aren’t the only geopolitical actors in the world.  We don’t operate in a sealed vacuum in which the interests and intentions of others have no meaning.  And from the perspective of these others – especially Russia, China, and India – what the US is doing with sanctions could well be the beginning of an attempt to destabilize Iran on their doorstep.

The strategic drivers

Once Iran is destabilized, the picture gets murkier from the standpoint of a great Asian power.

If you remember the Cold War and want to feel superannuated, go see the lush 2011 film adaptation of John le Carré’s 1974 novel Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

The performances are superb – Gary Oldman as George Smiley immediately makes you forget even Alec Guinness – and the script and staging range from not overly annoying to inspired.

But in the theater where I saw it, the quiet, understated delivery of the actors caused an older gentleman in the audience to shout,